Thursday 5 March 2020

Coronavirus Mortality (Death) rate

Being new (novel), not nearly enough is known about the mortality (death) rate of Coronavirus (CoVID-19). As it stands (at time or writing) the rate differs significantly, affected by location and other factors. Current estimates range from 1% upwards to 4% depending on the source[1].
Seasonal (traditional) flu generally has a low mortality rate of 1% or below (in the USA typically around 0.1%). This has caused so far this year, 32,000,000 infections (individual infections, not individual people infected), resulting in 18,000 deaths[2]. Were these Coronavirus infections, deaths would be around 300,000 at 1%, or 1,280,000 at 4%.

Alternatively, according to a study from Harvard, an estimated 40-70% of the global population may be infected by Coronavirus. If this projection is accurate deaths from COVID-19 will range between 30,000,000 and 200,000,000 individuals.



Footnotes:
[1] According to the Director General of the World Health Orgnaization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, about 3.4% of COVID cases have died: "Globally, about 3.4% of reported #COVID19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected"- @DrTedros #coronavirus". Alternatively an infection-rate of between 40-70% of the worlds population may be infected.
[2] deaths may not be directly attributed to flu itself, rather that an infection was a contributing aggravation or complication to an existing or underlying illness that lead to death.
[3] 40% = 3,080,000,000, 70% = 5,390,000,000 | 30,900,000 at 1%, 215,600,000 at 4%.

FDA/CDC, N95 Masks & Coronavirus

N95 Respirators and Surgical Masks (Face Masks)

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does not recommend that the general public wear N95 respirators to protect themselves from respiratory diseases, including coronavirus (COVID-19). The best way to prevent illness is to avoid being exposed to this virus. However, as a reminder, CDC always recommends everyday preventive actions, such as hand washing, to help prevent the spread of respiratory diseases.

WHO guidelines on #CoVID-19 (CoronaVirus)

Official WHO guidelines on managing Coronavirus (CoVID-19).

#WHO #Coronavirus #CoVID19 #CoVID-19

Monday 15 April 2019

Ebola in 2019


Ebola is still with us, we only get to know about it when its in the interests of Corporate news networks to 'sell' the news. We'll see how long this headline from the BBC lasts, "Ebola outbreak 'not global emergency yet'".

Tuesday 30 October 2018

Trump'ing the Fourteenth Amendment

Contrary to media and activist rhetoric, the 14th Amendment does not grant Citizenship rights to anyone who just happens to be "born" in the United States;
Section 1.
All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
Citizenship is bestowed by virtue of residency, a child born on US soil is subject to United States law only when their parent are similarly subject (this was to include and grant citizenship rights to recently freed slaves, and indigenous Indians, neither of whom were considered citizens of the United States at the time). The author of the 'citizenship clause', Sen. J.M. Howard, remarked on this context that;
The first amendment is to section one (cf. above), declaring that "all persons born in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the States wherein they reside." I do not propose to say anything on that subject except that the question of citizenship has been so fully discussed in this body as not to need any further elucidation, in my opinion. This amendment which I have offered is simply declaratory of what I regard as the law of the land already, that every person born within the limits of the United States, and subject to their jurisdiction, is by virtue of natural law and national law a citizen of the United States. This will not, of course, include persons born in the United States who are foreigners, aliens, who belong to the families of ambassadors or foreign ministers accredited to the Government of the United States, but will include every other class of persons. It settles the great question of citizenship and removes all doubt as to what persons are or are not citizens of the United States. This has long been a great desideratum in the jurisprudence and legislation of this country.
Further to this context conferred rights to citizenship may be granted where the parents of a child are considered to be permanent residents, but not (yet) naturalised citizens, of the United States (cf. United States v. Wong Kim Ark);
A child born in the United States, of parents of Chinese descent, who, at the time of his birth, are subjects of the Emperor of China, but have a permanent domicil and residence in the United States, and are there carrying on business, and are not employed in any diplomatic or official capacity under the Emperor of China, becomes at the time of his birth a citizen of the United States, by virtue of the first clause of the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution.
Interestingly, and perhaps ironically, in this context Trump's action could be considered a strict interpretation of the Executive Office's obligations to its role and the Constitution, making the following intentionally misleading; Trump is not claiming to "unilaterally end" anything rather to enforce the law as it currently stands;

Besides, since when do those opposing the move care about the Constitution so eager are they to find reason to infringe the individuals exercise of their 1st through deplatforming, social media account blocking, bans etc., and 2nd using every 'mass-casualty event' as reason for "common sense gun control".

Wednesday 9 May 2018

Ebola, other infectious diseases and Personal Protection Equipment (PPE face masks etc.)

WARNING: consult an appropriately qualified agent with any safety concerns, not blogs posts or opinions found on the Internet.

TL:DR; test and check Personal Protection Equipment before deployment or use. Don't just trust PPE to work as expected even if it says it should.

Ebola and similar contagious diseases are universally considered Class 4  Biohazards. That's the highest hazard level. Ebola in particular carries risk of high mortality rates and easy air and contact transmission and contamination which means dental or surgical masks and face guards are completely useless as personal protection (PPE), especially for prolonged exposure.

Or put more simply, Class 1 PPE items (dental/surgical masks and open face shields) will not in any way protect the wearer from Class 4 contaminants. This is equivalent to clearing a sewer in little more than a boiler suit and science goggles.

Class 4 Biohazards require positive-pressure equipment, self-contained or fed suits that are inflated like balloons so there is constant outward force that prevents ingress of contaminants through any gaps or openings.

For Ebola, Class 3 PPE should be considered the absolute minimum requirement, at least for initial response where time and mobility is crucial, not Class 1 - it may be cheap, but it's certainly not worth the risk.

When buying this type of personal protection equipment make sure it fits properly and check it functions as intended, make 'valved' or 'vented' masks for example have silicone or other flexible membranes that mitigate moisture build-up during exhale.

Upon investigation however, such baffles can often be found to not sit correctly, or might be slightly malformed - when worn a cool breeze will be felt highlighting the issue, the baffle doesn't fully close during intake as it should. This is particularly common on cheap masks and equipment, even though they may be marked PP2 or PP3.

Monday 7 May 2018

Trump doesn't care about the "little people"

This was originally written early in 2017 but never published. Little has changed it seems with an antagonistic media then, and still, moving from topic to topic trying to get something to stick to Trumps Teflon suits so he can be forcibly removed from office.

Does Trump really care about the "little people"? It's a question of measure, "how much does Trump care", and whose determining the qualifier, the "how much" aspect of the equation.

Reviewing the 'liberal' leaning press, that's your Times, Time, Guardian, Independent, BBC, CBC, Vox, Buzzfeed, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, NBC, etc., etc., basically any outlet considered part of Mainstream Media complex, the answer is "very little if at all", assuming ones able to navigate past calls for impeachment, assassination, or his otherwise removal from Office, and that's notwithstanding him and his support being "actual, like, Nazis, no, like, real Nazis".

Which can be broken down into two parts; "how much" and "care". The first can be defined by a quantitative value, i.e., how many times has Trump done "X", which in this case is "care".

And a qualitative value, again "care", far more difficult to define but does require some outward sign of some kind, i.e., Trump showing he cares by addressing "the little people" through meet and greets perhaps, the number of campaign stops, although perceptions may differ here (Trump appears to have made more stops only because news reporting was so fixated on him activities) as the numbers tend to indicate Trump and Clinton made, more or less the same roughly similar numbers of campaign stops.