Thursday 5 March 2020

Coronavirus Mortality (Death) rate

Being new (novel), not nearly enough is known about the mortality (death) rate of Coronavirus (CoVID-19). As it stands (at time or writing) the rate differs significantly, affected by location and other factors. Current estimates range from 1% upwards to 4% depending on the source[1].
Seasonal (traditional) flu generally has a low mortality rate of 1% or below (in the USA typically around 0.1%). This has caused so far this year, 32,000,000 infections (individual infections, not individual people infected), resulting in 18,000 deaths[2]. Were these Coronavirus infections, deaths would be around 300,000 at 1%, or 1,280,000 at 4%.

Alternatively, according to a study from Harvard, an estimated 40-70% of the global population may be infected by Coronavirus. If this projection is accurate deaths from COVID-19 will range between 30,000,000 and 200,000,000 individuals.



Footnotes:
[1] According to the Director General of the World Health Orgnaization, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, about 3.4% of COVID cases have died: "Globally, about 3.4% of reported #COVID19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected"- @DrTedros #coronavirus". Alternatively an infection-rate of between 40-70% of the worlds population may be infected.
[2] deaths may not be directly attributed to flu itself, rather that an infection was a contributing aggravation or complication to an existing or underlying illness that lead to death.
[3] 40% = 3,080,000,000, 70% = 5,390,000,000 | 30,900,000 at 1%, 215,600,000 at 4%.

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